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Which film do you believe will have the better opening weekend?

BATMAN is one of the biggest franchises in the world. And quite easily the most popular superhero. Even a team of heroes won't be able to topple The Dark Knight Rises.

I think the avengers will make about 650,000k and TDKR 800,000k. Also I can't explain those numbers.

I'm going against the grain here and siding with The Avengers to make more money its opening weekend. The movie opens at the beginning of May, two months before The Dark Knight Rises and movies that open early in the summer tend to do better.

@PenguinDust said:

I'm going against the grain here and siding with The Avengers to make more money its opening weekend. The movie opens at the beginning of May, two months before The Dark Knight Rises and movies that open early in the summer tend to do better.

The numbers disagree. Batman is releasing the third weekend of July, the most successful weekend in terms of box office receipts of the year. The biggest movie of every summer comes out on this weekend: 2011- HP7 2010- Inception 2009- HP6. And if that's not convincing enough, NO ONE GIVES A SHIT ABOUT THE AVENGERS. Seriously, the only superhero of that bunch that the masses care about is Iron Man and that's because of RDJ. So no, The Avengers is not going to beat TDKR.

The Avengers. TDK only made the money it did because Heath Ledger died. TDKR probably won't make even $700 Million worldwide, let alone over $1 Billion.

@brainboy77: Well, saying "no one gives a shit about The Avengers" isn't much of an argument, but everyone has opinions so that's neither here nor there. In the past, though there is evidence to suggest that an earlier release placement earns better box office returns. The July 4th weekend is also a good time to release a movie and this year that movie will be the Spiderman reboot three weeks before The Dark Knight conclusion.

Movies with the biggest summer earnings:

1. 1995 - Die Hard with a Vengence (release date: May 19)
2. 1996 - Independance Day (release date: July 2)
3. 1997 - The Lost World: Jurassic Park II (release date: May 23)
4. 1998 - Armageddon (release date: July 1)
5. 1999 - Star Wars Episode I (release date: May 19)
6. 2000 - Mission Impossible II (release date: May 24)
7. 2001 - Shrek (release date: May 18)
8. 2002 - Spiderman (release date: May 3)
9. 2003 - Finding Nemo (release date: May 15)
10. 2004 - Shrek II (release date: May 19)
11. 2005 - Star Wars Episode III (release date: May 19)
12. 2006 - Pirates of the Caribbean II (release date: July 6)
13. 2007 - Pirates of the Caribbean III (release date: May 25)
14. 2008 - The Dark Knight (release date: July 14)
15. 2009 - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (release date: July 15)
16. 2010 - Toy Story 3 (release date: June 18)
17. 2011 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows II (release date: July 15)

I will admit that over the last few years, the mid July weekend has shown strength and this might be a sign of a new trend, but for now I'll stick with my notion that earlier is better.

All I know is that the only Marvel film of the last couple of years that I thought was any good at all was X-Men First Class and that was made by Fox. On the other hand, in my opinion every film Christopher Nolan makes is better than the one that came before. With the sole exception of Insomnia which I felt was weaker than Memento. So I know which one I am going to see.

I don't know... but i sure hope it's batman!

And about the mid July thing... all those movies where of pretty big established franchises and lot of em were the second or third on the series (or 7th and 8th for the Harry Potter ones)

Inception made a good 700 million practically off of Nolan's name. TDK previously had the largest opening weekend before Harry Potter. I see no way TDKR won't be a billion grosser. I'm excited for the Avengers as well, but TDKR will gross miles more.

I'm sure both will have really good opening weekends. Avengers has an advantage of being one of the first big blockbusters of the summer season and well TKDR is Batman and people who traditionally go see only a few movies a year will see that. Batman is more well known to a wide audience and seeing the numbers for Marvel's movies after Iron Man 2, they seem to get smaller on their opening weekend. So I imagine people will see it cause Iron Man is the movie.

However, I am way more interested to see The Amazing Spider-Man's opening. Considering how much money the original trilogy made in it's opening weekend (July 4th as well), I wonder if it'll be as big or bigger than it once was.

@ScanCase said:

@brainboy77 ummm yes they do care about Avengers. However my money has to remain on batman.

What I meant was that mainstream America is not going to be that familiar with The Avengers. The most noteworthy of heroes on the team is Iron Man, and that's solely because of RDJ's presence. Thor? Captain America? Hawkeye? For a good month, I thought the last one was a surgeon at the 4077. The Avengers don't have that much appeal with the masses, at least not anymore, and Batman is fucking Batman. The Dark Knight is still the most talked about movie released in the past four years and now we're getting a sequel. That's why I said what I said, although I will admit my wording could have been much much better.

It is true. People who don't care about comic books at all still care about Batman. Avengers not as much. And as it turns out there are a lot of people who don't care about comic books.

. . . And then there is this.

That must mean something. Right?